(Originally posted on Huffington Post.)
After losing an election, it’s important to look back and figure out why. That’s the only way to make sure that you don’t keep making the same mistakes.
There has been a lot of discussion about what the No On 8 campaign did, and whether it was right or wrong. Unfortunately, there hasn’t been nearly enough focus on what is likely the single most important factor in our loss: that we needed to get the votes of people deeply conflicted about marriage to win. As I’ll explain, we’ll always be vulnerable in an election where we need conflicted voters to win.
If we have to go back to the voters—and we will have to do that, if not in California, in other states that have passed constitutional amendments—we need to make sure we have more committed support before we begin an election campaign. The good news is, we know how to do that, and we have the capacity to do it. The catch is that this isn’t something we can push off onto campaign managers and media experts. All of us—gay people and our allies—are going to have to talk to our friends and family. If we don’t, we could run the best campaigns imaginable and still lose.
Conflicted Voters: The Reason We Lost
The polls and other research show that when the campaign on Prop 8 began in earnest, around Labor Day, voters in California fell roughly into three groups: 1) those who supported marriage for same-sex couples (about 40 percent); 2) those who opposed marriage for same-sex couples (also about 40 percent); and 3) voters who were seriously conflicted (about 15 to 20 percent).
That group of “conflicted” voters was mostly made up of people deeply uncomfortable with marriage for gay couples, but who were also uncomfortable with the idea of taking something positive away from other people.
On Labor Day, a large majority of the conflicted voters were telling pollsters that they planned to vote against Proposition 8. That likely reflected the fact that pro-marriage forces had been effectively defining the debate. Up to that point, almost all of the public conversation about marriage had been positive, from the first gay wedding of Phyllis Lyon and Del Martin, who’d been together over 50 years, through countless stories in smaller media about local couples tying the knot.
Gay marriage was a “feel good” story and, to use today’s jargon, that “feel good” story set the frame of the public conversation from May to September. Most conflicted voters seemed to think it would be small and mean to take marriage away. Even if they didn’t support gay marriage, they were beginning to think they could live with it.
(Photo: Alan Light, Creative Commons)