Proposition 8: A Closer Look At Those Poll Numbers
Gregory M. Herek, Ph.D., is a professor of psychology at the University of California, Davis, where he teaches courses on survey methodology and conducts research on sexual prejudice. The opinions expressed at his website, Beyond Homophobia, are his own, and do not represent the views or policies of the University of California.
Ever since California county clerks began issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples last June, Proposition 8 — the proposed constitutional amendment to eliminate marriage equality — has appeared likely to lose at the ballot box.
Throughout the summer, statewide surveys from the Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) found that the measure lacked majority support. In fact, it was consistently opposed by more than 50 percent of likely voters.
But earlier this month, a new poll, sponsored by several CBS local affiliates and conducted by SurveyUSA, showed likely voters favoring passage of Prop. 8 by a margin of 47 percent to 42 percent. A follow-up SurveyUSA poll last week indicated the race was a statistical dead heat.
Today a new PPIC poll estimates that Prop. 8 is losing, 52 percent to 44 percent.
These conflicting findings have many supporters of marriage equality scratching their heads in confusion.
In my October 21 blog entry at Beyond Homophobia, I compare the methodologies of the SurveyUSA, Field, and PPIC polls. My conclusion is that the SurveyUSA polls may well be correctly stating the number of likely voters who support Prop. 8, but are undercounting those who oppose it. The statewide polls conducted by Field and the PPIC — both of which show Prop. 8 losing — are probably more accurate snapshots of statewide opinion.
Nevertheless, marriage equality supporters can't afford to be complacent. The PPIC poll released this week indicates the race has tightened. This trend is likely to continue between now and November 4, and the outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout. So it's important to continue to donate to the No On 8 campaign, to speak out against the measure, and to make sure that your family and friends vote.
You can read the entire analysis here.
Want to learn more about how to fight for relationship recognition for same-sex couples? Visit the ACLU LGBT Project’s online toolkit, Get Busy, Get Equal!
Oct 26th, 2008 at 10:22am
Thank you for straightining out the polls for me. It often gets confusing when you every channel you turn to or paper you read has different statistics. This isn't just a vote for marriage, it's a vote for equality.
Nov 17th, 2009 at 8:36am
Yes! One of the 1st questions you polled us on, should have been do you feel that the president lied to us when he was running. I'm a firm believer in backing our president even if you didn't vote for him. For the 1st. time in my entire life of voting in every election, (including millions of other Americans) we can say with a tremendously CLEAR CONSCIOUS, we cannot back the president. I've always believed that everyone should stand up for whoever becomes the president. I can no longer do that anymore. He's a disgrace, to not only America, but Americans, exedra. Please poll Americans about that. Poll us on whether or not, do we firmly agree or disagree that he's a complete disgrace to our government. Poll us about whether or not he made a mockery of our government and constitution. Please poll Americans about all of the issues, the president is insisting on right now, and making into law no matter what it takes, even if 80% of America doesn’t want what he’s making law as I type this to you. How do Americans feel about the war/terrorists coming onto American soil? So many large issues are happening now. I can't understand why this poll didn't include, anything about the president not abiding by our Constitution of America. "Please" poll Americans about how the president isn't closing the Guantanamo bay facilities housing the war terrorists, he quit literally, is in the works of ONLY, moving them onto our American soil, and he's not closing it Guantanamo, he's only moving Guantanamo and calling it something else! Poll Americans about his outright LIES to ALL AMERICANS! Poll Americans about the ACLU! Poll Americans about, whether or not, we the people, believe whether or not, our president is destroying our Constitution of America!!! ACLU, I WILL CLOSE YOU DOWN! I URGE YOU TO NOT STOP BEATING UP AND HITTING AMERICANS. YOU FREAKING BULLIES! YOU WILL BE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE!!! THAT'S A PROMISE!!! "REAL AMERICANS, ARE EXCITED TO ESCORT YOU TO AN UNDERGROUND JAIL" TO ROT FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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