Racial Justice Demands That Every Vote Is Counted

Discounting Mail-In Ballots Will Disenfranchise Communities of Color and Distort Election Outcomes in Key Counties in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia

Document Date: October 27, 2020

Anticipating the unprecedented surge in absentee ballots in this election, the ACLU Analytics team generated estimates of absentee voting volume by race and candidate support by vote-method in every county in the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. The team combined data gathered by a nationwide representative tracking survey conducted by YouGov with turnout modeling based on updated in-cycle ballot data to construct estimates through statistical modeling.

Our findings identify which counties potentially face the largest racial representation gap — that is, if the absentee ballot count is not completed, they will cause the biggest disenfranchisement of voters of color. What happens in these counties may well change the course and outcome of the election.

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